Nearly 100 U.S. banks that got bailout funds from the federal government show signs they are in jeopardy of failing.
The total, based on an analysis of third-quarter financial results by The Wall Street Journal, is up from 86 in the second quarter, reflecting eroding capital levels, a pileup of bad loans and warnings from regulators. The 98 banks in shaky condition got more than $4.2 billion in infusions from the Treasury Department under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
A few comments:
1. The banks discussed in the story are small; the real question is what is going on with the large banks.
2. These banks have paid back their TARP injections. But that, by itself, does not prove they are healthy. Since the crisis, the Fed has been lending at low interest rates for short-term debt and buying at high interest rates for long-term debt. This juiced profitability at the big banks, generating the funds that allowed them to pay off their TARP injections. Their overall portfolios, however, may still contain a lot of assets whose values are significantly overstated.
3. Many factors indicate that housing prices are still going to drop substantially. So assets backed by housing – both thse on bank balance sheets and that on the Fed’s balance sheet – may decline in value.
4. In that case, the Fed will lose money when it tries to sell off its MBS portfolio (offsetting the returns it is earning now), and the big banks’ inflated balance sheets will become tougher to disguise.
5. If these concerns are accurate, it is still an open question as to how much TARP will ultimately cost the taxpayers.