Imagine that a bi-partisan budget commission recommended two changes to Social Security:
1. a cut in the benefit schedule that reduces the present value of benefit payments by 50%.
2. an increase in tax rates that raises the present value of revenue collections by 25%.
How should libertarians react?
My guess is that most would say the benefit reduction is good and the tax increase is bad. They would not feel comfortable endorsing the package, however, and would argue for the benefit reduction without the tax increase.
This position is understandable; the tax increase, by improving Social Security’s solvency, could make it harder to cut benefits even more in future.
Yet absent a compromise, benefits may not get cut at all. Perhaps at some point a national debt crisis will generate major benefit cuts without tax increases, but history provides little hope for that approach.
An additional consideration, moreover, is that the distinction between Social Security taxes and other taxes is an accounting gimmick. If Social Security tax revenues are not sufficent to pay promised benefits, Congress will use other tax revenues. Under this view, a benefit cut combined with a tax increase is actually just a benefit cut; the tax increase has (implicitly) already occurred.
This implies that libertarians and others worried about the U.S. fiscal outlook might reasonably support budget compromises that both reduce expenditure and raise taxes, so long as the expenditure reduction is larger than the tax increase.
The qualification, of course, is that real-world budget compromises are typically complex and laden with accounting gimmickry; small and ephemeral expenditure reductions are a Trojan horse for big tax increases. In this case the libertarian response is clear.
But if a compromise genuinely shrinks the net liabilities of Social Security, or any entitlement program, then libertarians should not dismiss it out of hand.